For a week or more, many Americans, especially those in Florida, have been glued to the Weather Channel, anxiously awaiting every update on the progress of Tropical Storm Isaac. While the expected tragedy seems to be unfolding in Haiti, primarily due to inadequate shelters and infrastructure in that country, most other reports have involved minimal impact from the storm to date.
Meanwhile, from the Expert Desk, computer models have been unrolled on a regular basis and, for the past several days, had generally agreed on a path along the west coast of Florida. The only question was how severe the winds and storm surge would be and how disastrous Isaac would be for the Republican National Convention, in Tampa. A great deal of focus was also directed to the risk of tornadoes and torrential rain across the Sunshine State.
This morning, all has changed. The computer-generated cone of risk has shifted dramatically to the west, suggesting that the storm's impact across Florida (except for the Keys) may be limited and that the major threat (a Category 2 Hurricane) is now expected to impact the northern Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Mobile. Jim Cantore, the Weather Channel's most recognizable celebrity and hurricane stuntman, initially assigned to ground zero (Tampa), will surely catch a flight to the revised impact zone and the hurricane forecast experts, focused on Florida for the past week, will be left to explain how their models were so unreliable. I suggest the immortal words of the late Rosanne Rosannadanna: Never Mind!
